11/20/2025
Panama’s ocean lifeline never skipped a beat until 2025.
The Pacific waters off Panama always followed a reliable seasonal rhythm. From December to April, strong trade winds triggered a process called upwelling, pulling cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep to the surface. That influx fueled fisheries, cooled coastal waters, and helped coral reefs survive heat stress.
But in 2025, the cycle broke.
For the first time in over 40 years of monitoring, Panama’s upwelling failed completely. Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute linked the collapse to weaker-than-normal trade winds, likely driven by a shifting climate.
The effects were immediate. Satellite data showed a dramatic drop in ocean productivity. Chlorophyll concentrations, the foundation of the marine food web, plunged. Fisheries saw fewer fish. Coral reefs faced unbuffered heat.
This isn’t just a local event. Upwelling zones are among the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth, and they’re deeply tied to weather, food security, and biodiversity. A disruption in one season could ripple across economies and ecosystems.
The failure of Panama’s upwelling is a signal – one that ocean systems we’ve long considered stable may now be entering unfamiliar territory. Scientists are calling for better monitoring and early warning systems, especially in vulnerable tropical regions.
Read the study:
“Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025.” PNAS, 2 Sep 2025.
📸Credit: Aaron O’Dea
