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09/05/2025

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01/16/2025

U.S. Stock Market Preview | December Retail Sales Fall Short of Expectations; Major Futures Steady; TSMC Gains 5% Pre-Market on Strong Q4

Key News
U.S. December Retail Sales Miss Expectations, Futures Show Limited Reaction

December retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month, the weakest since August 2024, below the 0.6% forecast and prior 0.7%.
As of this writing, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq futures reacted mildly, with Nasdaq 100 up around 0.2%.
TSMC Up Over 5% Pre-Market After Q4 Earnings Beat

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) reported Q4 net income of NT$374.7B, a 57% YoY increase (vs. NT$369.84B expected).
Revenue reached NT$868.46B (+39% YoY), above the NT$855.34B estimate; gross margin rose to 59% (consensus 58.5%, prior 57.8%).
As of press time, shares are up more than 5% pre-market.
NVIDIA Rises Over 1% Pre-Market; Teams Up with MediaTek to Build Windows on Arm Flagship SoC

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) advanced more than 1% pre-market.
Multiple sources report that NVIDIA and MediaTek will jointly release the first Arm-based SoC optimized for Windows devices by the end of this year.
Symbotic Surges Over 26% Pre-Market, Acquires Walmart’s Advanced Systems & Robotics Unit

Symbotic (SYM.US) soared more than 26% pre-market after announcing it will acquire Walmart’s advanced systems and robotics operations.
The transaction expands the companies’ long-term partnership focusing on supply-chain automation.
Duolingo Sees Surge in Mandarin Learners, Up 216% YoY

Duolingo (DUOL.US) revealed data from December 2024 to January 13 showing a 216% YoY spike in American users studying Mandarin.
Analysts note this aligns with the rapid rise of Xiaohongshu (RED) in the global App Store charts.
Bank of America Jumps Over 2% Pre-Market; Q4 Net Interest Income Beats Expectations

Bank of America (BAC.US) said Q4 net interest income (NII) reached $14.36B (vs. $14.12B expected).
Shares rose more than 2% on the news.
Apple iPhone Q4 Shipments in China Drop 25%, Ties Huawei with 17% Market Share

Data from Canalys shows Apple (AAPL.US)’s Q4 smartphone shipments in China fell 25% YoY to 13.1M units.
Despite the drop, Apple retained a narrow lead with 17% share, closely matched by Huawei at 17% (12.9M units, +24% YoY).
Microsoft CEO Meets with Trump, Musk; Pledges $80B Toward AI Data Centers

Microsoft (MSFT.US) CEO Satya Nadella joined talks with President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk on AI and cybersecurity.
Microsoft later announced plans to invest $80B globally in AI data centers, over $50B of which will be allocated in the U.S., potentially creating significant local jobs.

U.S. Stock Market Preview | December Retail Sales Fall Short of Expectations; Major Futures Steady; TSMC Gains 5% Pre-Market on Strong Q4

Key News
U.S. December Retail Sales Miss Expectations, Futures Show Limited Reaction

December retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month, the weakest since August 2024, below the 0.6% forecast and prior 0.7%.
As of this writing, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq futures reacted mildly, with Nasdaq 100 up around 0.2%.
TSMC Up Over 5% Pre-Market After Q4 Earnings Beat

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) reported Q4 net income of NT$374.7B, a 57% YoY increase (vs. NT$369.84B expected).
Revenue reached NT$868.46B (+39% YoY), above the NT$855.34B estimate; gross margin rose to 59% (consensus 58.5%, prior 57.8%).
As of press time, shares are up more than 5% pre-market.
NVIDIA Rises Over 1% Pre-Market; Teams Up with MediaTek to Build Windows on Arm Flagship SoC

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) advanced more than 1% pre-market.
Multiple sources report that NVIDIA and MediaTek will jointly release the first Arm-based SoC optimized for Windows devices by the end of this year.
Symbotic Surges Over 26% Pre-Market, Acquires Walmart’s Advanced Systems & Robotics Unit

Symbotic (SYM.US) soared more than 26% pre-market after announcing it will acquire Walmart’s advanced systems and robotics operations.
The transaction expands the companies’ long-term partnership focusing on supply-chain automation.
Duolingo Sees Surge in Mandarin Learners, Up 216% YoY

Duolingo (DUOL.US) revealed data from December 2024 to January 13 showing a 216% YoY spike in American users studying Mandarin.
Analysts note this aligns with the rapid rise of Xiaohongshu (RED) in the global App Store charts.
Bank of America Jumps Over 2% Pre-Market; Q4 Net Interest Income Beats Expectations

Bank of America (BAC.US) said Q4 net interest income (NII) reached $14.36B (vs. $14.12B expected).
Shares rose more than 2% on the news.
Apple iPhone Q4 Shipments in China Drop 25%, Ties Huawei with 17% Market Share

Data from Canalys shows Apple (AAPL.US)’s Q4 smartphone shipments in China fell 25% YoY to 13.1M units.
Despite the drop, Apple retained a narrow lead with 17% share, closely matched by Huawei at 17% (12.9M units, +24% YoY).
Microsoft CEO Meets with Trump, Musk; Pledges $80B Toward AI Data Centers

Microsoft (MSFT.US) CEO Satya Nadella joined talks with President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk on AI and cybersecurity.
Microsoft later announced plans to invest $80B globally in AI data centers, over $50B of which will be allocated in the U.S., potentially creating significant local jobs.
Global Macro
All Eyes on Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Confirmation Hearing Tonight: Tariffs, Debt, Tax Cuts, “333” Plan

At 10:30 AM ET (11:30 PM Beijing time), the Senate will hold a confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent.
Markets anticipate clarity on Trump’s proposed tariff policy, Treasury debt issuance, tax reform, the “3-3-3” plan, Fed leadership, and the future of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.
U.S. National Security Advisor-Designee Praises TikTok, Vows to Help Keep It in U.S.

With the looming “sell-or-ban” deadline and Trump’s imminent inauguration, TikTok’s fate in the U.S. is uncertain.
In a media interview, Mike Walz, soon-to-be National Security Advisor, called TikTok “a great platform,” adding that the new administration will work to preserve the app.
Barclays Delays End of Fed’s QT to September

Barclays now predicts the Fed will end quantitative tightening in September (vs. prior March), citing last month’s FOMC minutes for lacking any mention of balance-sheet reduction.
Strategist Joseph Abate said the Fed might tie ending QT to a specific reserves-to-assets ratio (around 12%) rather than to a set date. Under no debt-ceiling constraints, that threshold could be reached by August 2025

01/15/2025

U.S. Stock Market Preview | Major Index Futures Spike as Core CPI Surprises to the Downside, Market Expects Further Fed Easing; Quantum Computing Stocks Continue Rebound Pre-Market, QBTS & QUBT Up Over 16%

Key Headlines
1. U.S. Core CPI Unexpectedly Falls, Major Index Futures Soar

U.S. CPI rose 2.9% YoY in December, matching the 2.9% consensus and up from 2.7% previously.
Core CPI climbed 3.2% YoY, below the 3.3% forecast, marking the lowest rate since August 2024.
Following the data, traders raised bets on further Fed easing, now pricing in a potential rate cut by late July (previously September).
As of writing, all three major futures are up over 1% on this news.
2. Citigroup Rallies Nearly 4% Pre-Market on Q4 Revenue Beat, $20B Buyback

Citigroup (C.US) reported Q4 2024 revenue of $19.58B (vs. $19.42B expected), up from $17.44B a year ago.
The bank also announced a $20B share repurchase plan. As of press time, Citigroup shares are up nearly 4% pre-market.
3. Goldman Sachs Q4 Net Revenue at $13.87B, Topping Estimates

Goldman Sachs (GS.US) reported Q4 net revenue of $13.87B (vs. $12.37B consensus).
Net interest income came in at $2.35B (vs. $2.11B expected).
FICC sales and trading revenue reached $2.74B (vs. $2.44B consensus).
As of writing, Goldman shares are up 2% pre-market.
4. JPMorgan Q4 Revenue at $42.77B, Exceeds Expectations

JPMorgan (JPM.US) reported Q4 revenue of $42.77B (vs. $41.18B forecast), with EPS of $4.81.
Shares jumped over 3% pre-market.

Global Macro
1. Mid-Cap U.S. Stocks Seen as Attractive; Goldman Projects S&P 500 at 6,500 by Year-End
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, stating that mid-cap equities look especially appealing due to relatively lower valuations compared to large caps. The bank reiterates its target for the S&P 500 to reach 6,500 by year-end — an 11% rise from Tuesday’s close — primarily driven by earnings growth.

2. IEA Monthly Report: Emerging Supply Risks to Ease 2025 Global Oil Surplus
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil inventories to increase by 725,000 barrels/day in 2025, below the previous forecast of 950,000 barrels/day, as new supply challenges and colder weather drive up prices. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration warns that once OPEC fully restores production and output grows in countries like the U.S., an oversupply may worsen in 2026.

3. BofA Merrill Lynch: Bond Market Shocks Present a “Golden Opportunity” to Buy AI-Related Equities
Bank of America (BofA) believes any stock pullback stemming from surging Treasury yields could help investors sidestep risks of an AI bubble. They highlight parallels with the dot-com era, where tech names delivered 80% annual returns despite higher-than-current 10-year Treasury yields. BofA views any near-term correction as a significant buying opportunity for AI-driven equities

01/14/2025

U.S. Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Futures Spike on Lower-Than-Expected PPI; Chinese EV Stocks Surge Pre-Market, XPeng Up Over 9%

U.S. Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Futures Spike on Lower-Than-Expected PPI; Chinese EV Stocks Surge Pre-Market, XPeng Up Over 9%

Key News
December U.S. PPI Below Estimates; Major Futures Rally

U.S. December PPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (vs. 3.4% expected, prior 3%).
Month-over-month PPI increased 0.2% (vs. 0.4% forecast, prior 0.4%).
Shortly after release, S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures jumped sharply, with Nasdaq futures up nearly 1%.
Tesla Gains Over 1% Pre-Market After Morgan Stanley Ups Target to $430, Reaffirms “Top Pick”

Tesla (TSLA.US) added more than 1% pre-market.
Morgan Stanley, led by Adam Jonas, reiterated Tesla as a “top pick,” raising its price target from $400 to $430.
Analysts see Tesla’s autonomous driving and embodied AI/robotics prospects as key growth drivers, positing a bullish scenario of $800 per share.
Applied Digital Soars Over 20% Pre-Market on Up to $50B Macquarie Investment for AI Data Centers

Applied Digital (APLD.US), a company partly backed by NVIDIA holdings, shot up over 20% pre-market after Macquarie Asset Management unveiled a major investment.
Macquarie will invest up to $900 million in Applied Digital’s North Dakota data center campus, underscoring strong confidence in its expansion strategy.
Under the agreement, Macquarie has priority rights to invest up to an additional $4.1 billion in future Applied Digital data center projects over 30 months, significantly advancing the firm’s growth trajectory.
In exchange, Macquarie will obtain a 15% stake in Applied Digital’s high-performance computing division, with Applied retaining 85% majority ownership.
Teladoc Health Rises Nearly 5% Pre-Market on Amazon Partnership

Teladoc Health (TDOC.US) announced a partnership with Amazon (AMZN.US), allowing eligible Amazon customers to enroll in Teladoc’s diabetes, hypertension, prediabetes, and weight-management programs via Amazon’s Health Benefits Connector.
As of this writing, Teladoc shares are up about 5% pre-market.

Global Macro
Wall Street Braces for High Market Volatility on CPI Release; Traders on Edge

Citi notes that the S&P 500 has a 1% implied move in either direction on CPI day—the highest pre-CPI implied volatility since March 2023.
Some major banks have revised their rate cut expectations, with Bank of America now forecasting no Fed rate cuts this year.
Trump’s “Gradual” Tariff Plan: The Inflation Wild Card? UBS Says Fed Faces a Dilemma

UBS warns that with President-elect Donald Trump taking office, his phased-in tariff policy could complicate the Fed’s final push to tame high inflation.
Rolling tariffs could cause inflation to peak sharply, posing a significant challenge for policymakers.
Is a Market Shift Underway? World’s Largest Mutual Fund Recommends Only 38% Stocks

Vanguard, the world’s biggest mutual fund manager, cautions clients against surging equity prices amid diminishing odds of further Fed rate cuts, advising a defensive stance with heavier bond allocations.
Its key model currently recommends a 38% equity allocation and the remainder in fixed income, highlighting increased caution due to stretched valuations and uncertain monetary policy

01/13/2025

U.S. Stock Market Preview | Wall Street Now Talking About Possible Rate Hikes! Major Futures Edge Lower; Intra-Cellular Therapies Surges 35% Pre-Market on a $14.6 Billion J&J Deal

Key News
Monday Pre-Market: All Three Major U.S. Index Futures Weaken

Semiconductor Stocks Mostly Down Pre-Market

TSMC (TSM.US) down over 3%, NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Micron (MU.US) near -3%.
Bitcoin Drops Below $91,000, Crypto-Related Stocks Decline

U.S. Imposes New AI Chip Export Curbs, NVIDIA & Oracle Already Opposed

On October 13, the U.S. government announced new regulations limiting computing power in AI chips destined for most countries.
NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and Oracle (ORCL.US) criticized the measures as potentially “the most destructive policy in U.S. tech history,” shrinking the global chip market for U.S. companies by as much as 80%.
Tesla Falls 3% Pre-Market; Europe’s Largest Pension Fund Sells Entire $5.85 Billion Stake

Tesla (TSLA.US) slides over 3% after ABP—the largest European pension fund—divested its entire €5.71B ($5.85B) stake in Tesla, citing dissatisfaction with Elon Musk’s compensation package.
ABP’s spokesperson said the pay plan was “problematic.” Other factors, including returns, costs, and responsible investment requirements, also influenced the decision.
Intra-Cellular Therapies Jumps ~35% Pre-Market on Johnson & Johnson’s $14.6B Acquisition

On October 13, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) announced plans to buy Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI.US) for $14.6B to bolster its neurological disease treatments portfolio.
It’s the largest biotech M&A deal since 2023 and the first over $10B in the space since 2024. Intra-Cellular soared nearly 15% last Friday and adds about 35% pre-market, poised to hit record highs.
Sage Therapeutics Surges Over 37% Pre-Market as Biogen Plans to Acquire Remaining Shares at a 30% Premium

U.S. biotech firm Biogen (BIIB.US) announced Friday it will acquire the remaining publicly traded shares of Sage Therapeutics (SAGE.US) at $7.22/share, implying a 30% premium.
Sage is up more than 37% pre-market.
HSBC Cuts NVIDIA Price Target, Sees GB200 Supply Chain Issues Extending into FY2026 H1

HSBC warns NVIDIA (NVDA.US) might face GB200 chip supply bottlenecks from February to July 2025 (its FY2026 H1), limiting near-term “above-expectation” growth.
HSBC maintains a “Buy” rating but reduces the price target from $195/share to $185/share based on a 32x PE.
NVIDIA is down over 3% pre-market.

Global Macro
End of Rate Cuts Already? Wall Street Talks Rate Hikes

Friday’s strong nonfarm payroll data rattled markets and raised doubts about a 2025 Fed easing cycle.
Bank of America warns the Fed may stand pat or even lean toward tightening. Wells Fargo also expects no cut in January and diminishing odds of a March cut.
New Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Holdings: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin...

According to financial disclosures, President-elect Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Bessent, holds at least $521M in assets, including over $50M each in S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs, $250k–$500k in an iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, and more than $50M in U.S. Treasuries. Also included: farmland, real estate, antiques, and art, making his total assets at least $521M.
Ex-Fed Vice Chair: Central Bank Independence Won’t Change Under Trump

Former Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles said a Trump presidency won’t threaten the Fed’s autonomy or alter inflation and job market fundamentals.
He cited the Fed’s structure, suggesting politics won’t undermine its independence.
10-Year U.S. Yield Approaches 5%; Global Bond Markets Shaken

U.S. Treasuries—serving as the world’s largest bond market—have climbed over one percentage point in just four months, nearing 5%. The last short-lived breach of 5% was in 2023, an event not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Higher yields could affect global borrowing costs and economic growth, as well as capital market valuations

01/08/2025

U.S. Stock Market Preview | “Small Nonfarm” Falls Short of Forecast, Major Index Futures Inch Higher; AMD Investment Boost Sends AI Startup ABSI Soaring Over 40% Pre-Market

Key News
Wednesday Pre-Market: Major Index Futures Edge Up; “Small Nonfarm” Data Falls Short of Expectations, FOMC Minutes Due Tonight
U.S. December ADP Employment: Increased by 122,000 (vs. consensus of 140,000, previous 146,000).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes from its December monetary policy meeting, potentially offering further insight into future rate decisions, especially regarding the Fed’s hawkishness. In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with officials projecting only two cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said further adjustments hinge on inflation trends.
Apple’s $1B Investment Fails to Lift Indonesia’s iPhone 16 Ban
Indonesia has banned sales of Apple (AAPL.US) iPhone 16 series, saying Apple’s $1 billion AirTag factory plan does not fulfill local investment requirements.
Indonesian Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita stated that Apple must partially produce its smartphones or components domestically under local-content rules, but AirTag is considered merely an accessory, falling short of these requirements.
Musk: Tesla’s Optimus Robot Could See Updates in “Next Few Weeks”
On January 7, Elon Musk revealed during a gaming livestream that Tesla may share an update on its Optimus humanoid robot in “the next few weeks,” citing “very smooth progress.”
In June 2024, Musk said at a Tesla (TSLA.US) shareholder meeting that Optimus would undergo a “major hardware revamp” by late 2024 or early 2025, entering limited production in 2025 with more than 1,000 units possibly undergoing pilot operations in factories.
Zuckerberg Courts Trump Administration, Meta Ends Fact-Checking Program
Meta Platforms (META.US) announced it will end its third-party fact-checking initiative and shift to a crowdsourced community-notes approach—similar to Twitter (X)—while easing content moderation on controversial topics like immigration and gender identity.
Zuckerberg said in a video, “We’ve reached a point with too many mistakes and too much censorship. It’s time to return to the essence of free expression,” adding that the recent U.S. election influenced his thinking.
Micron to Invest $7 Billion in a High-Bandwidth Memory Packaging Plant in Singapore
Micron Technology (MU.US) will invest $7 billion to expand capacity in Singapore by building an advanced HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) packaging facility. It’s expected to be completed next year and contribute to Micron’s overall capacity in 2027, creating 1,400 local jobs.
Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry Heng Swee Keat noted the semiconductor industry is key to advanced manufacturing, accounting for 8% of Singapore’s GDP.

Global Macro
Citi: A 5% Yield on U.S. Treasuries Could Be a Buying Opportunity
On January 8, Citi’s Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Economist Steven Wieting said the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise further to 5%, which he sees as “a very attractive entry point.”
Fed Governor Waller: Supports Further Rate Cuts This Year
Fed Governor Christopher Waller commented that inflation should continue to ease in 2025, allowing the Fed to cut rates further, though the pace is uncertain.
Although inflation “appears to have stalled” above the Fed’s 2% target late in 2024, Waller is encouraged by market-based inflation forecasts and shorter-term readings, suggesting U.S. inflation is receding.
He acknowledged calls for a pause or slowdown in cuts but believes inflation will keep moving toward 2%. He did not specify how many times rates should be cut in 2025, noting FOMC views range from zero to as many as five cuts.
Fed’s Bostic: Policy Should Remain Cautious As Progress on Inflation Is Uneven
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said officials should be careful with policy decisions amid patchy progress on inflation and maintain higher rates to achieve price stability. He expects inflation to gradually return to the 2% target this year but anticipates occasional stalls or even flare-ups.
Sources: Trump May Declare “National Economic Emergency” to Enact New Tariff Plan
CNN reports President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to legally justify imposing broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The law grants the president broad powers to regulate imports during a declared national emergency, without the strict requirement of a “national security” basis. However, no final decision has been made

01/07/2025

US Stock Outlook: NVIDIA Hits All-Time High in Pre-Market; "Midas Touch" Repeats as NVIDIA-Related Stock Aurora Soars Nearly 40%

Hot News

Pre-Market on Tuesday: The three major futures indices saw slight gains.

Semiconductor Sector: Most stocks in this sector rose, with Micron Technology up over 4% and NVIDIA up over 2%.

Major Product Launches: NVIDIA pre-market surged over 2%, potentially opening at an all-time high.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$: NVIDIA rose over 2% in the pre-market, with its stock price potentially opening at an all-time high. In related news, CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote speech, unveiling a series of new hardware, software, and services, including consumer-grade GPUs based on the Blackwell architecture and the NVIDIA COSMOS foundational model designed to understand the real world. Additionally, he announced a collaboration between Toyota and NVIDIA to develop the next generation of autonomous vehicles.

Meta Announces UFC CEO and Stellantis Chairman to Join Company’s Board

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$: Meta announced the addition of three new directors to its board, including Dana White, CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), who is one of the most influential executives in the media industry and an ally of US President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, the company appointed investor and former Microsoft (MSFT.US) executive Charlie Songhurst and Stellantis Chairman John Elkann as advisors for AI products. With their addition, Meta’s board will expand to 13 members.
Toyota Pre-Market Rises Over 2%, to Collaborate with NVIDIA on Next-Gen Autonomous Vehicles

$Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US)$: Toyota rose over 2% in the pre-market. In related news, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced at the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show that Toyota and NVIDIA will collaborate to develop the next generation of autonomous vehicles. Toyota's next-gen autonomous vehicles will be equipped with NVIDIA's in-car supercomputer system Drive AGX Orin and the autonomous driving platform operating system DriveOS.
Global Macroeconomics

Federal Reserve Issues Rare Direct Warning to US Stocks; Governor Cook Says Market Valuations Are Too High and May Face Significant Corrections

Federal Reserve Governor Cook issued a rare direct warning to the stock market. Cook stated, “Valuations across multiple asset classes are elevated, including stocks and corporate bonds. Risk premium valuations are near the lower end of historical distributions, suggesting that markets may be priced to the extreme. Consequently, these markets could face significant declines due to adverse economic news or shifts in investor sentiment.”

Morgan Stanley Investment Director: US Stocks May Face Severe Challenges in the Next Six Months Due to Rising Bond Yields and Strengthening Dollar Raising Inflation Concerns

A Morgan Stanley investment director stated that US stocks may face severe challenges in the next six months due to rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which are fueling inflation concerns. He noted that the correlation between the S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US) and bond yields has become distinctly negative, as the 10-year US Treasury yield climbs above 4.5%. Additionally, the dollar is nearing a level that could pressure companies with substantial international operations, potentially more broadly impacting stock performance in the first half of this year.

Forex Market Experiences "Topsy-Turvy" Changes Within 24 Hours, All Thanks to Trump! "High Volatility" in 2025 Will Be the Keyword for the Forex Market

On Monday, the foreign exchange options market, which exceeds $300 billion in size, started calmly until political headlines from Canada and the United States triggered the busiest forex options trading day in nearly two months. The rapid increase in trading volume in the forex options market indicates that political factors in 2025, especially all political news associated with Trump himself, will influence the trading trends of the forex market.

Under the Impact of High Interest Rates, US Corporate Bankruptcy Rates Rise to Highest Levels Since the Financial Crisis

High interest rates and weakened consumer demand have hit struggling businesses, pushing the US corporate bankruptcy rate to its highest level since the global financial crisis. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, at least 686 US companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024, an increase of approximately 8% compared to 2023, making it the highest number since 2010 (828 companies). Data from Fitch Ratings also show an increase in the number of companies seeking out-of-court restructurings to avoid bankruptcy last year, with a ratio of about 2:1 compared to bankruptcies.

Wall Street Bond Short Sellers: 10-Year US Treasury Yields to Rise to 5.5% by Year-End

One of Wall Street’s largest bond short sellers has had a good start to the year as US Treasury yields approach his forecast. The Global Debt and Interest Rate Strategy Head at ING Group predicts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to 5.5% by the end of 2025. This forecast is based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive interest rates to offset the price pressure risks from President-elect Trump’s tariff and tax cut policies, as well as the risk of investors continuing to hesitate regarding federal policies

01/06/2025

U.S. Stock Market Preview | Major Futures Rise, Nasdaq Futures Up Over 1%; AI Chip Stocks and Robotics Concepts Strong Pre-Market, TSMC Climbs Nearly 5% to New High, KITT Surges Over 60%

Key News
Monday Pre-Market: All Three Major U.S. Index Futures Jump, Nasdaq Futures Up Over 1%

Crypto-Related U.S. Stocks Rally Pre-Market:
- KULR Technology (KULR.US) up 8%
- MicroStrategy (MSTR.US), IREN Ltd (IREN.US), Hive Blockchain (HIVE.US) all up over 4%
- Coinbase (COIN.US), Hut 8 (HUT.US) both gain 3%

Robotics Concept Stocks Surge Pre-Market:
- Nauticus Robotics (KITT.US) soars over 44%
- Guardforce AI (GFAI.US) up nearly 40%
- Richtech Robotics (RR.US) up 26%
- Serve Robotics (SERV.US) up over 10%

NVIDIA Rises Over 2% Pre-Market, CEO Jensen Huang to Deliver CES Keynote
NVIDIA (NVDA.US) climbed over 2% in pre-market trading. The company will hold a keynote at CES 2025 on January 7 at 10:30 AM Beijing time, featuring CEO Jensen Huang. Market watchers expect notable announcements, especially regarding the new RTX 50 series GPUs. Rumors suggest NVIDIA might unveil its RTX 5090/5080 graphics cards at CES 2025.

ASML Jumps Over 5% Pre-Market; CEO to Meet TSMC Chairman Mark Liu
ASML (ASML.US) rose more than 5% pre-market. Taiwan’s Electronic Times reports that next week, ASML’s CEO Christophe Fouquet and other top executives will meet with TSMC Chairman and President Mark Liu, as well as Co-COO Yung Pei Chin. Supply chain sources indicate ASML wants to better understand TSMC’s technical roadmap and purchasing plans for the next few years, hoping TSMC will accelerate and expand orders for High-NA EUV lithography machines, each priced at around $380 million.

TSMC Climbs Nearly 5% Pre-Market, Sets New Record High on Taiwan Stock Exchange; Multiple Banks Remain Bullish
TSMC (TSM.US) is up nearly 5% pre-market. On Monday, TSMC’s shares on the Taiwan Stock Exchange set a record high of NT$1,025.
Wall Street sees continued strength for TSMC in 2025. Morgan Stanley notes TSMC often gives conservative annual guidance and then exceeds it. UBS highlights robust demand for high-performance computing and cloud AI, predicting a 25% annual revenue jump for TSMC in 2025. Goldman Sachs expects TSMC’s Q1 2025 revenue to dip only 2.2% QoQ, reflecting a relatively optimistic outlook among top investment banks.

Global Macro
U.S. Media: Trump Team Mulls Tariffs on “All Countries” But Only for Key Imports
According to The Washington Post, three sources familiar with the matter indicate that President-elect Trump’s aides are discussing a tariff plan applying to “all countries” but limited to key imported goods—a major shift from Trump’s broader tariff proposals during the 2024 campaign. If implemented, the revised plan would scale back previous expansive measures but could still disrupt global trade and weigh heavily on the U.S. economy and consumers.
News of this plan sparked immediate rallies in offshore RMB, FTSE China A50 futures, and Hang Seng futures.

Goldman Sachs: Now Expects 75 bps of Fed Rate Cuts This Year, Down from 100 bps
Goldman Sachs economists now predict the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in total this year, less than the previously forecast 100 bps. This view is more dovish than current market pricing, as Goldman believes core inflation is trending downward. However, the economists remain cautious about whether potential policy changes under a new Trump administration could drive rates higher

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