05/18/2026
The decline in Canadian travel to the United States may be much bigger than earlier border data suggested, according to new research from the University of Toronto.
Initial estimates based on border crossings suggested Canadian travel to the U.S. had dropped by about 25%.
But researchers looked at cellphone activity in major U.S. cities and found a much sharper picture: a median decline of 42% in Canadian visits.
They wrote:
“This means that a) border crossing data is not capturing the full drop in Canadian business and trade-related travel and b) when Canadians travel to the U.S., they are visiting fewer locations and staying for less time than they used to,”
Some of the biggest drops were in popular travel destinations.
Key findings:
🔹Myrtle Beach, South Carolina: down 65.4%
🔹Several Florida cities, including Orlando, Miami, Naples, Cape Coral and Panama City, were among the hardest hit
🔹50 major U.S. metro areas saw Canadian travel fall by 50% or more
🔹Out of 267 U.S. cities studied, only three saw Canadian visits increase: Portland, Gainesville and Cleveland
Statistics Canada data shows April 2026 saw a small 1.4% year-over-year increase in Canadian return trips to the U.S., but compared with April 2024, visits were still down 30%.
Researchers say the decline may reflect more than tourism. Their cellphone data may also capture business travel, freight-related movement, and Canadians who had been living temporarily in the U.S. and returned home.
The findings come amid ongoing trade tensions, tariff disputes, and political friction between Canada and the United States.
For many Canadians, the message seems clear: even when people still cross the border, they may be travelling less, staying shorter, and choosing fewer U.S. destinations.
Source: CTV News 🇨🇦 See less
