01/14/2026
Thereās a big pool of cold air way up north thatās basically itching to come down and say heller. š
The global models, with some decent support from their ensemble members, are showing the possibility of the floodgates opening and delivering the coldest air of the season sometime mid to late next week.
What would allow this to happen is a large amplitude ridge of high pressure that would build off of the West Coast stretching all the way into the Aleutian Islands of Alaska.ļæ¼
Downstream of this ridge is where the jetstream buckles and sags south essentially like opening up a highway for cars of cold air to freely drive south like bats out of hell š¤£ļæ¼
Now, how cold that air gets and how long it sticks around, still very much to be determined. As Iāve mentioned in previous updates, this stage of the forecast is about identifying trends, recognizing the most likely synoptic setup, and then refining details as we get closer.
There are still crazy spreads and differences in the forecast models, and hereās just one example:
This morningās run of the Euro has a high temperature on Sunday, January 25 of -8Ā° in Denver. That would be the same day as the AFC championship if it were in Denver lol but the high on the same day according to the deterministic GFS is 33Ā°
A whopping 41Ā° temperature difference.
If you consider the Euro ensemble mean average, the high is 37Ā° in Denver on that day and the GFS ensemble mean average is 42Ā° that day.ļæ¼
Can you see the problem?ļæ¼
So right now, the Euroļæ¼ is definitely the outlier. For now.
Iāll also be honest, forecast model performance has been pretty p**s poor this fall and winter, for a number of reasons. One consistent bias Iāve noticed is that as we get closer in time, models tend to shift the lobes of Arctic air farther east of the Rockies, especially with the ādeath ridgeā (yes, Iām still calling it that š) thatās kept us mild and dry for much of the season so far. That ridge has been a real wrench in the gears.
Thatās because the large amplitude ridge I just talked about ends up being further east than the models originally thought. They correct their bias, and we end up being underneath the ridge versus underneath the trough. Make sense? šļæ¼āš¼
The pessimist in me says the models may correct again and we miss out on a true Arctic outbreak. But the optimist in me sees subtle differences in the deterministic runs that suggest this setup could be different than previous fronts weāve tracked.
TL;DR:
Thereās considerable uncertainty with next weekās forecast, but I want to give you a heads up anyway about the potential for the coldest temperatures of the season, and possibly snurfall opportunities. The finer details will take time to sort out, so patience is key.
This process of forecast model transparency that I just walked you through? I do this every single day lolļæ¼
This isnāt a forecast. Itās merely a discussion. A discussion of what Iām looking at and once I know more Iāll pass those details along..ļæ¼
Many you have asked what that process looks like and this is what it looks like. Itās not pretty. Itās messy as s**t.. š¤£š¤£š¤£ļæ¼
Iāll keep watching the trends and keep you updated.
K thanks bye
