04/15/2026
The first quarter housing numbers are in, and there's some positive news in there for homeowners.
Sacramento real estate market Q1 2026
If you felt like the local housing market was asleep in January and February, it wasn’t your imagination. Closed sales across Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado counties started the year relatively flat. This is fairly typical, as the market usually tapers off toward the end of the year and takes a couple of months to get going again, but this year was a little different.
While January sales and pendings were down 12% from the year prior, February and March held relatively even to last year with one major exception: Pending sales (accepted offers) rose by 14%, or 205 units.
We do normally see a rise in activity in March, but this spike feels like more than just a seasonal cycle. Improving consumer sentiment, pent-up demand, and a dip in interest rates all seem to have converged to push the market forward.
It still comes down to supply and demand. We have fewer homes for sale, yet significantly more buyers committing to contracts.
While March usually brings a seasonal uptick, this year’s jump was surprising, especially in light of the gloom and doom crowd constantly predicting the end if nigh. Buyers and sellers reached agreements at a much higher rate than last year, with the market driven by a few key factors:
We saw a drop in mortgage rates through February and early March. While they’ve ticked up since, they seem to be easing back down this week, keeping buyers engaged.
Many buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines are tired of waiting. They need homes, have adjusted to the “new normal” of the economy and the market, and are ready to move.
With Sacramento area listings down, the competition for well-priced homes remains stiff, and 57% of pending sales reported multiple offers.
What Does This Mean for Your Equity?
You might notice that prices are down slightly—the median price dipped from $600,000 to $590,000. However, don’t let that fool you into thinking the market is “crashing”. Prices have indeed fluctuated since May of 2022, and are down slightly from last year, but as noted, buyers are back.
When you combine low inventory with high pent-up demand, you get a buffer that prevents prices from sliding too far. In most Tri-County neighborhoods, values remain stable despite the slight year-over-year adjustment.
The Bottom Line
I usually say something like, ‘barring some unforeseen catastrophe, we should be okay’. Well, we’ve had one or two, but still seem to be okay. Time will tell if this March momentum can carry us through the summer. If interest rates continue to stabilize or improve, and our political issues subside, we could be looking at a very busy Q2, .
Keep in mind: Real estate is hyper-local. These are general Tri-County numbers, but what’s happening in a Folsom cul-de-sac might be completely different from a Sacramento bungalow or an El Dorado Hills luxury estate.
Curious about your home’s specific value, or what’s happening in your neighborhood?
Drop me a line.
Whether you’re thinking of selling while competition is low, trying to navigate a purchase in this competitive spring market, or just curious, lean on me. I’ve been around.
Steve Heard EXP Realty of Northern California, Inc DRE #: 01368503
Phone: 916-718-9577
Email: [email protected]
Web: myfolsom.com
