06/18/2026
Interesting post from Treasure Valley Weather HQ about the film Pressure, which starts Friday here at the eltrym!
I watched Pressure and absolutely loved it.
Granted, I adore Brendan Fraser, so I was probably going to watch it anyway. 😆
But here are my neurospicy thoughts after watching it for the first time, because there are some really important educational nuggets sprinkled throughout the movie.
The first thing that stood out to me was Dr. James Stagg's personality. He was portrayed as abrasive, dry, stubborn, and at times a complete hard ass. In wartime, that's not surprising at all. Honestly? I kind of liked it.
The fate of Europe, and arguably the course of human history, may have hinged on his weather forecast.
Yeah... I'd probably be a little cranky too.
One thing the movie does a great job of illustrating is just how difficult weather forecasting was in the early 1940s. They didn't have satellites. They didn't have Doppler radar. They didn't have supercomputers running weather models every hour.
Instead, they relied on weather balloons, ship observations, surface observations, historical records, maps, pencils, telephones, and a whole lot of experience.
Forecasters would collect observations from thousands of miles away, analyze conditions from 40,000 feet in the atmosphere all the way down to the surface, then literally hand draw weather maps to create a big picture understanding of what was happening.
First on a synoptic scale, that's meteorologist speak for the large scale weather pattern, and then narrowing it down to specific regions. In this case, the coast of northern France.
The movie also touches on something we still use today: analogs.
An analog is simply a historical weather pattern that resembles what we're seeing now. Modern forecast models still use analog data in various ways. Historical records help provide context, while real time observations tell us what the atmosphere is doing right now.
The combination of historical data and current observations helps us build a forecast.
Today it's largely digital.
Back then?
It was done with eyes, ears, weather balloons, handwritten observations, maps, and a whole lot of brainpower.
Now imagine looking at all of that information and arriving at a forecast that everybody else disagrees with.
They disagreed because the historical record suggested early June in northern Europe often featured more favorable weather conditions.
But weather doesn't care what happened most years.
Just because Colorado experienced a bomb cyclone in March 2019 doesn't mean we're going to get one every March moving forward.
And just because it was cool and rainy in Denver on June 17, 1905 doesn't mean June 17, 2026 will look anything like that.
That's one of the most important lessons in meteorology.
History provides clues.
It does not provide guarantees.
As the invasion approached, military leaders desperately needed a weather window. Conditions on June 5 looked increasingly dangerous for an operation of that scale. High winds, rough seas, and low clouds would have posed serious problems for troops, aircraft, and naval operations.
Meanwhile, the astronomical and tidal requirements for the invasion created an incredibly narrow window of opportunity.
Imagine being the person responsible for advising military leaders under those circumstances.
Imagine being asked whether delaying the invasion could cost the Allies the war.
Imagine being asked whether proceeding with the invasion could cost thousands upon thousands of lives.
That's pressure.
In the end, Dr. Stagg stood by his forecast and recommended a brief break in the weather that would arrive on June 6.
Eisenhower trusted him.
History tells us what happened next.
Whether you're forecasting for D-Day or trying to predict next weekend's thunderstorm chances, forecasting has always involved the same challenge:
Making the best possible decision with incomplete information.
And sometimes having the courage to stand by your forecast when everybody else in the room thinks you're wrong.
That's a lesson that has never stopped being relevant.
