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22/11/2020

Global X's Newest Bet Targets High Online-Based Growth in Emerging Markets
Global X's newest thematic bet is on disruption and high growth markets.

The Emerging Markets Internet & E-commerce ETF (EWEB) launched on Alibaba 's (NYSE:BABA) Singles Day on Nov. 11 and focuses on companies that derive the bulk of their revenue from internet and e-commerce in emerging markets. Alibaba, in fact, is one of the top holdings among 50 in the fund, which leans heavily toward Asia and more specifically, China.

That has to do with the rise of e-commerce in the country along with the increase in smartphone and internet pe*******on, demographics and the size of the Millennial population, said Chelsea Rodstrom, a research analyst at Global X ETFs. China's policies also support making it a global innovator. And then there's the potential market boom ahead, whereas in the U.S., internet pe*******on is 90%, in China it's closer to 53%.

"These economies are moving from adopters of the latest technology to leapfrog, to jump over and acquire the latest technology and become innovators," Rodstrom said in a phone interview.

EWEB is Global X's latest bet on thematic funds as it taps into an ever-expanding demand for exchange traded funds. The market for ETFs has grown from about $4 trillion last year to almost $5 trillion today, and is expected to grow to between $30 trillion and $50 trillion by 2030. ETFs offer lower costs, liquidity and tax efficiency than traditional funds. While ETFs often track indexes, Global X has focused on themes, creating its own basket of companies in areas like genomics and biotechnology, cybersecurity and education. The fund joins the Global X Thematic Growth suite of 24 ETFs and more than $7 billion in assets under management.

EWEB tracks the Nasdaq CTA Emerging Markets Internet & E-commerce Net Total Return Index, with Asia representing a number of the holdings

22/11/2020

U.S. retailer Guitar Center files for bankruptcy
Guitar Center Inc, the largest U.S. retailer of music instruments and equipment, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Saturday, as music lovers moved their shopping online during the coronavirus pandemic.

The retailer has negotiated to have a total of $375 million in debtor-in-possession financing from its existing lenders and intends to raise $335 million in new senior secured notes in a statement.

Earlier this month the company reached a restructuring agreement with key stakeholders that includes debt reduction by nearly $800 million and new equity investments of up to $165 million to recapitalize the company.

The company in a court filing said it has between $1 billion and $10 billion of both assets and liabilities.

Guitar Center, which owns nearly 300 stores across the country, said business operations will continue without any interruption.

Milbank LLP served as legal counsel, BRG served as restructuring advisor, and Houlihan Lokey (NYSE:HLI) was financial advisor to the company.

Guitar Center began in 1959 as a store selling home organs in Hollywood.

The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States Bankruptcy Court of the Eastern District of Virginia.

22/11/2020

Point/Counterpoint: As Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs, is it Really Different Now?
Bitcoin is on the cusp of history once again. The popular crypto is nearing the $20,000 milestone for the first time since 2017. But unlike the rally of yesteryear, which was largely fueled by speculation, FOMO and irrational exuberance, this latest surge bears the hallmarks of a real staying power.

The next step is real-world acceptance of it as a currency for transactions, not just a curiosity. And that still seems a long way off.

Investing.com's Yasin Ebrahim argues the bull case for bitcoin, while Peter Nurse gives us plenty of reason for skepticism. This is Point/Counterpoint.

The Bull Case

The underlying demand in this rally is not one that appears fleeting in nature, driven mostly by retail investors looking to make a quick buck. This time, bitcoin has finally caught the attention of Wall Street in a big way.

Institutional investors have long been earmarked as the missing piece of the Bitcoin puzzle. Not only do they boast clients with larger portfolios, but they have the investment nous to appreciate the characteristics of bitcoin that make it a mainstay in portfolios during the current macroeconomic environment.

Faced with a wave of lower interest rates that are likely to keep fiat currencies on the backfoot, investors are desperate for a hedge against currency debasement. Gold Futures, the usual go-to hedge has lost some of its edge. And bitcoin, while unlikely to usurp gold, could plug the gap.

20/11/2020

Japan’s Record Covid Cases Stoke Economic Double-Dip Concern
Record Covid-19 cases in Japan and overseas are increasing the risk of the economy losing recovery momentum and even shrinking again as the spread of infections complicates the government’s plans to support growth.

Lockdowns overseas and renewed concerns over the virus at home already appear to be impacting activity in Japan’s economy, according to PMI data released Friday. The figures showed a faster rate of contraction in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

While the likelihood of a double-dip contraction in Japan still isn’t the main scenario for economists, the outside risk of one is growing as the near-term outlook continues to look far from clear even after encouraging vaccine test results.

The surge in infection cases makes Shinichiro Kobayashi, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:MUFG) Research & Consulting Co., wonder if he needs to cut his current forecast for zero growth in the first quarter of 2021.

“Just a little push will be enough to bring Japan into a double dip,” Kobayashi said Friday, a day after Tokyo raised its virus alert to the highest level and nationwide cases hit another daily record. “It’s becoming acutely clear that the government isn’t able to contain virus cases while boosting economic activity.”

20/11/2020

Erdogan Says Interest Rates Will Fall After Inflation Slows
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey’s main objective is to reduce interest rates as inflation slows to official medium-term targets.

Thursday’s interest rate hike by the nation’s central bank is part of “bitter pill policies” that Turkey must follow, Erdogan told a group of businessmen in televised remarks from Istanbul on Friday.

While the Turkish leader renewed his tacit approval for the recent return to more orthodox monetary policies, he also repeated his widely discredited belief that higher interest rates fuel inflation. Most economists and central bankers around the world say the opposite is true.

The lira was little changed after Erdogan’s remarks and was trading 0.7% lower at 7.6029 per dollar at 12:17 p.m. in Istanbul.

20/11/2020

EU says Brexit trade deal still snagged on three issues: diplomats
The European Union and Britain remain at odds in last-ditch trade talks over fishing rights, guarantees of fair competition and ways to solve future disputes, even though they are very close to agreement on other issues, EU diplomats said on Friday.

The diplomats were briefed by a senior member of the bloc's executive European Commission, which is negotiating a new trade pact with Britain on behalf of the EU's 27 states, behind closed doors on Friday about the latest in the troubled Brexit talks.

"We are both close and far away. It seems that we are very close to agreement on most issues but differences on the three contentious issues persist," a senior EU diplomat told Reuters after the briefing.

The chief Brexit negotiators suspended direct talks on Thursday after a member of the EU team tested positive for COVID-19, but officials continued working remotely to clinch a trade deal that would come into force in just six weeks.

A second EU diplomat said of the three main sticking points: "They still need their time. Some things on the level playing field have moved, albeit very, very slowly. Fisheries are not really moving anywhere right now."

19/11/2020

Pound Euro Exchange Rate Advances Limited despite Eurozone’s Gloomy Outlook
Despite a lack of domestic support for the Euro (EUR), the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate’s advances were dented today. Investors are buying the Euro due to weakness in its rival the US Dollar (USD).

Since markets opened this week, GBP/EUR movement has been fairly steady. GBP/EUR has been gradually climbing from the week’s opening level of 1.1148, and yesterday touched on a high of 1.1213.

However, the pair has been unable to even hold these modest gains, quickly slipping back. At the time of writing, GBP/EUR trends near the level of 1.1176.

GBP/EUR is currently around a cent below last week’s best level, which was the best level for the pair in six months. This means that GBP/EUR is still fairly strong overall.

19/11/2020

Dollar Edges Higher; Turkish Central Bank in Focus
he dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, helped by its safe haven status as concerns about the impact of the coronavirus remain.

At 3:05 AM ET (0805 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.2% at 92.517, but just above the month’s low of 92.129. EUR/USD dropped 0.1% to 1.1842, USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 103.89, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.7286.

Traders are having to balance the two competing forces impacting the dollar, a safety bid supporting it and the idea of additional monetary easing to support the coronavirus-hit economy, which weighs on the greenback.

The number of Covid-19 deaths in the United States crossed 250,000 on Wednesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, with the number of people hospitalized with the virus rising above 78,000, the highest ever for a single day during the pandemic.

This has prompted further restrictions around the country, with New York City, for example, shutting schools from Thursday and switching to fully remote learning.

The likely impact of these new restrictions, coupled with the lack of progress on a fiscal stimulus bill, is fuelling speculation the Federal Reserve will have to expand its asset-buying campaign at a December policy meeting.

19/11/2020

Fed’s Mester Says More Fiscal, Not Monetary Support, Is Needed
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said fiscal policy support, not additional monetary-policy action, is what the U.S. needs most as surging Covid-19 infection rates threaten to smother economic activity.

“The virus case increase is very concerning and the fact that we don’t have a fiscal package is very concerning,” Mester said Thursday in an interview with on Bloomberg Television with Michael McKee and Jonathan Ferro (NYSE:FOE).

Mester, a voter this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, noted that some sectors of the economy are doing fine while others remain severely damaged.

“With the disparate impact, that’s where fiscal policy plays a role because fiscal policy can be really targeted,” she said, whereas monetary policy is a much more blunt tool for stimulating the economy. “We’re in a good place with our monetary policy because we are very accommodative.”

At its Nov. 4-5 meeting, the FOMC discussed its options for altering large-scale asset purchases as a way to further lower borrowing costs for businesses and households. The Fed is currently buying about $120 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds every month, partly aimed at lowering borrowing costs for businesses and households. The Fed’s next meeting is Dec. 15-16.

Asked if she supported a move to adjust or increase the purchases, Mester was noncommittal but didn’t lean in favor of a change.

18/11/2020

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Sinks as Bank of England is Cautiously Upbeat
The Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate dipped today, with the pairing currently trading around €0.895.

Sterling rose today after the Bank of England’s (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey was a notably upbeat at The City UK National Conference today.

Mr Bailey said that there is now ‘some light at the end of the tunnel’ for reducing the nation’s economic uncertainty.
As a result, GBP investors have become more optimistic about the British economy, though it has been beset by caution as Brexit and Covid-19 remain obstacles.

Today also saw reports that Downing Street could be in the process of reviewing England’s Covid-19 restrictions.

18/11/2020

Yen claws back ground as looming winter chills vaccine cheer
The safe-haven Japanese yen sat near a one-week high and a steady U.S. dollar held commodity currencies in check on Wednesday, as worries about rising coronavirus cases tempered optimism around promising vaccine trials.

At 104.14 per dollar, the yen has recouped more than half of the steep losses it suffered last week after Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) announced it had developed a working COVID-19 vaccine.

Bitcoin (BTC=BTSP), sometimes regarded as a haven asset or at least a hedge against inflation, has surged to a three-year high against the dollar and the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars were a fraction softer, along with stocks.

"The slight cooling of equity sentiment has put a cap on currencies," said Westpac currency analyst Imre Speizer.

"We know we've got a vaccine. Now it's about distribution and how quickly it can start to make a difference, which is going to be quite a few months away."

Before then, a tough winter looms.

Surging cases have driven record hospitalisations and fresh restrictions on gathering in the United States, while new outbreaks vex authorities in Japan, South Korea and Australia.

18/11/2020

Dollar Weakens as Consumers Lose Confidence; Pound Gains on Possible Deal
The dollar edged lower in early European trade Wednesday, weighed by signs the surge in coronavirus vases is hitting the U.S. consumer while the country’s political scene remains divided.

At 3:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.2% at 92.245. EUR/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.1883, USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 103.91, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7304.

U.S. retail sales rose by just 0.3% in October, at the slowest pace in six months, while the previous month saw a downwardly revised 1.6% gain. This suggests consumers, who have driven the economic rebound, are becoming more cautious given the surging numbers of coronavirus cases in the country.

At the same time, the political partisanship in the U.S. shows few signs of changing after outgoing President Donald Trump fired Chris Krebs, who heads the Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, accusing him without evidence of making a "highly inaccurate" statement that affirmed the security of the U.S. election.

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