27/03/2026
Predicted Result Cardiff South Penarth my prediction only
LIKELY
Plaid 28%
REFORM. 25 %
GREENS 18%
LABOUR 16%
CONS. 6%
OTHERS. 7 %
SEAT 1
PLAID. 28000. Now 14000
SEAT 2.
REFORM. 25000. 12500
SEAT 3 GREENS 18000. Now 9000
SEAT 4 LABOUR. 16000 NOW 8000
SEAT 5. PLAID. NOW. 9333
SEAT 6. REFORM 12500
So 2 each for Plaid and Reform , 1 each for Labour and Greens
WORST CASE SCENARIO
PLAID. 33%
REFORM. 20%
GREENS 19%
LABOUR 14%
CONS. 7
OTHERS 7
SEAT 1
Plaid 33000 now 16500
SEAT 2
Reform 20000 now 10000
SEAT 3
Greens. 19000 now 8000
SEAT 4
Plaid. 16500 now 11000
SEAT 5
Labour 14000
SEAT 6
Plaid. 11000
3 for Plaud 1 each Reform , Greens and Labour
WE NEED TO BE SECOND. TO BEAT GREENS AND LOSE TO PLAID BY NO MORE THAN. 9 %
32 % to 21% losing by 11%
& would give
Plaid. .32รท3. = 10666
Reform. 10500
Plaid take 6th seat
31% to 22% losing by 9%
Plaid. 10333
Reform. 10500.
Reform take 6th seat
Greens would Need to beat Reform and score no more than 9% less than Plaid.
So a couple of essential things here
1 Greens although a threat can actually do us a favour if they take votes off Plaid. As long if course as they don't beat us
1. We still need to attack Plaid and score no more than 9% of votes less than them to beat them to the 6th SEAT.
3. Labour would need to beat us and Greens to get a second seat
4. Lib Dems would need over 12 % to get a seat.
