17/07/2026
"How poker maths can help you distinguish between good and bad plays"
Often, players think "maths" that sounds hard and complex. Truth be told, as long as you know what bits, you can be much more proficient by learning some of the maths.
Today, I will talk draws. In the future, if you guys want more maths, then let me know.
Firstly the rule of "2 and 4." Simply put, each out is a 2% chance of hitting on the next street. So a 9 out flush draw has 18% chance to hit on the next card. The 4 is when you are talking about flop to river. So in this case, a flush draw has 9 x 4% = 36%.
The second part is pot odds(if you want more on this, let me know in the comments).
So let's say our opponent bets 33% pot. This is now 133/33 or 4/1(alway use the lowest denominator). The easiest way to think about this is to add both the numbers together, 4+1 =5. Then, the right number(1 in this case goes first). So it ends up as 1 in 5, or 20% as a break-even point(not including implied odds, that's another topic).
So we can see in this case we have 18%, but we need 20%. With draws, you have the implied odds(future bets), but if they went all in, then of course there are no future bets, and you should just fold. Since 18% is less than the 20% needed to call.
The more you experience practising these, the better you will get.
To conclude, by being better with some of the poker maths, you will make more sound decisions(EV+).
Until next time
