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19/10/2020

By Gina Lee

Investing.com – The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, with China due to release quarterly growth data, including GDP and industrial production readings, later in the day, despite fading hopes for the latest fiscal stimulus package to be passed by the U.S. Congress ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential elections.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.04% to 93.672 by 9:40 PM ET (1:40 AM GMT), following a 0.7% rise the previous week over surging numbers of COVID-19 cases and the impasse in Congress.

The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.01% to 105.41.

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.36% to 0.7106. The NZD/USD pair was up 0.32% to 0.6625, after the NZD showed little reaction to Prime Minister Jacinda Arden’s Labor party cinching a landslide victory on Saturday.

The risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies saw gains over expectations that the Chinese data will show strong growth for the quarter. Investors are hoping that a strong recovery in the world’s second largest economy will strengthen demand amid rising COVID-19 cases and the re-introduction of restrictive measures such as lockdowns.

Although the People’s Bank of China introduced policies to stem the yuan’s recent rise during the previous week, the expectations have boosted the currency over its 18-month high of 6.6788. The USD/CNY pair edged down 0.12% to 6.6883.

The GBP/USD pair edged up 0.20% to 1.2938.

In the U.S., despite House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi setting a Tuesday deadline for Congress to reach consensus on a deal before the election, most investors remain doubtful that the deadline will be reached as a Joe Biden victory looks imminent.

“Fiscal remains the buzzword … but forget the Republicans’ move to pass a $500 billion bill, it will not see the light of day, and expectations of a new stimulus bill have been pushed into 2021,” Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston told Reuters. With around two weeks left until Nov. 3, national polls show Democrat candidate Biden leading incumbent President Donald Trump by around ten points. The two men will square off at a final debate scheduled for Thursday.

“Markets will be attentive to any potential shift in polls, although traditionally the last debate has less impact in public opinion … the main risk for markets now would be a tightening in polls, which would reduce the likelihood of a large Democratic fiscal stimulus package and could raise the likelihood of a long-contested election,” Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts said in a note.

Meanwhile, Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed stimulus package efforts via a phone call on Saturday and are due to speak again later in the day. Trump has also renewed his offer to up the package’s price tag.

19/10/2020

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com - The dollar edged higher in early European trade Monday, with the disappointing Chinese GDP data weighing on risk sentiment, while traders also cast a nervous eye on the U.S. political situation.

At 2:55 AM ET (0655 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.1% at 93.8727, following a 0.7% rise last week when a global surge in coronavirus cases and an impasse over the stimulus package prompted caution.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD was down 0.1% at 1.1709, USD/JPY was largely flat at 105.41, while USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 6.7024.

Earlier Monday, China reported that its gross domestic product grew 4.9% in July-September from a year earlier, slower than the median forecast of 5.2% but an increase from the second quarter's numbers. China remains the only major economy worldwide set to grow this year, according to new International Monetary Fund forecasts released last week.

Investors globally are pinning hopes on a robust recovery in China to help restart global demand as economies struggle with renewed lockdowns amid a second wave of coronavirus infections.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday that she was optimistic that legislation on a wide-ranging coronavirus relief package could be pushed through before the election on Nov. 3. But setting a Tuesday deadline for Congress to pass the measures leaves little time for such a bill.

Continuing the political theme, just fifteen days out from election day, Democrat challenger Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by about ten points in national polls, and has a narrow lead in several battleground states. The pair are due to face off in a final debate on Thursday.

“President Trump will hope that this Thursday’s second and final TV debate in Nashville presents an opportunity to score some points off Biden,” said analysts at ING, in a research note.

“Any narrowing in the opinion polls will probably be taken as a negative by risk markets, increasing as it does the chances of a contested election. This comes at a time when financial markets are priced towards a benign outcome in the form of a Democratic clean sweep,” ING added.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2936. Traders are taking Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s comments about the U.K. government’s willingness to go for the Australia-style trade deal, i.e. no deal, with a large pinch of salt. Speculation is rising that the controversial Internal Markets Bill, which essentially rips up the Withdrawal Agreement that governs the current transition period post-Brexit, will be watered down by the House of Lords this week.

“If the market credibly believed in the threat of a no deal Brexit, GBP would be materially weaker today,” ING analysts said.

Still, time is running out for some form of deal to be done.

“Two months is the absolute minimum required to legislate for a deal, if one is done,” said Adam Cole, head of currency strategy at RBC Europe, in a Bloomberg report. “So early November is the real deadline. If it’s clear at that point that we are heading for no deal for sure, we have around 5% downside across the board.”

13/10/2020

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON (Reuters) - The performance gap between emerging market currencies and their developed peers has blown out to its widest level in more than a decade as falling interest rates, an uncertain economic outlook and sizeable outflows curb investor appetite.

A group of 10 major emerging currencies - including the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real and the Turkish lira - have underperformed developed market currencies by nearly 14% this year, according to Nordea Research.

Graphic: EM FX and developed FX https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/nmovaymbdva/EM%20FX%20and%20developed%20FX.JPG

That is in stark contrast to the aftermath of the 2008/09 global financial crisis when the same basket of currencies gained as much as 25% thanks to massive fiscal stimulus from China, which in turn boosted global growth and commodity prices and helped countries from Indonesia to Brazil recover quickly.

"A lot of people expected emerging markets to strengthen strongly...but that hasn't happened this time as the carry story has virtually disappeared and we are also not seeing dramatic growth outperformance," said James Binny, global head of currency at State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Advisors.

Relatively higher interest rates in emerging markets have always been a big draw for investors, but now central banks are being forced to do the heavy lifting to support their struggling economies, and policy makers - in the absence of meaningful inflation pressures - are far more tolerant of currency weakness than in the past.

Emerging central banks have now cut interest rates for 20 consecutive months.

Graphic: Performance of EM vs DM https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/ygdvznreevw/performance%20of%20EM%20vs%20DM.JPG

There are signs the easing cycle may be running out of steam with the speed of rate cuts slowing and Turkey and Hungary surprising with rate hikes. Yet that offers little solace to foreign investors who made a beeline to emerging markets in recent years.

Foreign investor holdings of major emerging market local currency debt has fallen sharply to near $400 billion from $550 billion at the start of the year, TS Lombard data shows.

While some of the decline has been offset by investors piling into Chinese local bonds ahead of the country's inclusion in the global bond benchmark WGBI next year, dismal growth prospects mean outflows from emerging markets remain large.

Even by the end of 2022, the economies of Brazil, Mexico and Turkey are likely to be around a tenth smaller than pre-virus estimates, according to forecasts by Capital Economics.

13/10/2020

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar bounced back from a three-week low on Tuesday as market players bought it back, particularly against riskier peers, after Chinese authorities appeared to be trying to put a brake on recent rises in the yuan.

The Australian dollar lost about a half percent, taking an additional hit from media reports China has halted coal imports from the country as their relations deteriorate.

But overall risk sentiment was propped up by hope that former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will beat President Donald Trump in the Nov. 3 U.S. election and push forward with a large stimulus to shore up a pandemic-hit economy.

The dollar index rose 0.1% to 93.190 (=USD), trying to extend its rebound from Friday's near-three-week low of 92.997, with the euro falling 0.17% to $1.1794 (EUR=).

The Chinese yuan fell 0.1% to 6.7500 per dollar , after the central bank set a weaker than forecast midpoint, offseting any boost from strong Chinese trade data.

China's central bank announced on the weekend the removal of reserve requirements for some foreign exchange forwards, cementing speculation Beijing wants to curb the yuan's strength.

"Biden trades have been hot in the last several days, in which people sell the dollar, particularly against currencies that have suffered under Trump, like the yuan, the Mexican peso or the Canadian dollar," said Masaru Ishibashi, joint general manager of Sumitomo Mitsui (NYSE:SMFG) Bank.

"But if you think that Beijing is sending a message to rein in the yuan's strength, then it might make sense to unwind that trade for now."

The Mexican peso also fell 0.4% to 21.270 to the dollar while the Canadian dollar dipped 0.1% to C$1.3124 per dollar .

A Biden victory is seen as negative for the dollar also partly because his pledge to increase corporate tax would reduce returns from investments in the United States, putting pressure on the dollar even against safe-have currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc.

The yen moved little at 105.43 per dollar while the Swiss franc traded at 0.9102 to the dollar , near its highest in three weeks.

Sterling traded above the key $1.30 level as hopes for a Brexit deal offset concern about pressure on the economy from new coronavirus restrictions British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced.

The pound stood near its strongest levels in two weeks against the euro, which changed hands at 0.9043 pound (EURGBP=).

On the other hand, the Australian dollar dropped as much as 0.6% to $0.7165 , not helped by media reports China has stopped taking shipments of Australian coal.

"Despite the positive risk sentiment, the Aussie appears to have been well contained by further indications that Chinese imports of met and thermal coal have been banned. This is important given that 22% of Australian thermal coal exports went to China in the last year and 28% of met coal," said Rob Rennie, head of financial market strategy at Westpac.

"We stick to the view that the near-term risks for the A$ are lower and a dip below 0.70 through end October/ early November is still possible."

13/10/2020

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com - The dollar edged higher in early European trade Tuesday, gaining some ground as the more risk-averse sought a safe haven following news of Johnson & Johnson’s setback with its Covid-19 vaccine candidate.

At 2:55 AM ET (0655 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up just 0.1% at 93.227, regaining a little ground after falling Friday to a three-week low of 92.997.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.1785, USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.37, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.4% to 0.7179.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) said late Monday it had temporarily paused its Covid-19 vaccine candidate clinical trials due to an unexplained illness in a study participant, delaying one of the highest profile efforts to contain the global pandemic.

In September, rival AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) paused late-stage trials of its experimental coronavirus vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, also due to an unexplained illness. While trials in the U.K., and elsewhere, have resumed, the U.S. trial is still on hold pending a regulatory review.

That said, the dollar gains are small and the overall tone remains positive for risk as polls are tending to suggest a clear-cut presidential election victory for Democrat candidate Joe Biden. The market is expecting this to result in a large stimulus to shore up a pandemic-hit economy.

“Supporting risk assets and pressuring the dollar seem to be hopes for fresh U.S. fiscal stimulus and investors settling into a view that the Presidential election outcome will not be contested,” said analysts at ING, in a research note.

“We don’t expect these views to be challenged too harshly in the week ahead since the second Presidential TV debate looks to be delayed and neither party in Congress wants to be seen killing stimulus prospects.”

Elsewhere, GBP/USD traded 0.2% lower at 1.3041, still above the key 1.30 level as hopes for a Brexit deal offset concern about pressure on the economy from new coronavirus restrictions. EUR/GBP dropped 0.1% to 0.9037, near its weakest levels in two weeks.

“This Thursday’s EU summit is Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s self-imposed deadline for a trade deal, but we expect the deadline to be breached and negotiations to continue in the coming weeks,” said ING.

“GBP net-short positioning does offer some position-squaring upside room, but it's key to note that the size of GBP shorts is still small compared to other periods where a no-deal outcome appeared as a serious risk.”

Also, USD/CNY was largely flat at 6.7471, with China currency’s recent bout of weakening, on the back of the central bank lowering the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions when conducting some foreign exchange forwards trading, halted by strong trade data.

12/10/2020

By Gina Lee

Investing.com – The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, with negotiations over the latest stimulus measures in the U.S. floundering and the yuan seeing a drop after the Chinese central bank announced measures to curb the currency’s strength earlier in the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged up 0.10% to 93.108 by 9:43 AM ET (1:43 AM GMT). The greenback rebounded from losses on Friday, the biggest in six weeks, as investors hoped for Congress to reach consensus on the stimulus measures.

Investor hopes rose after President Donald Trump proposed a $1.8 trillion package on Friday during talks with House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, inching closer to the Democrats’ $2.2. trillion proposal.

However, Trump’s offer irked his fellow Republics, many of whom are reluctant to add to a growing debt pile, and potentially costing his party critical support in the Nov. 3 presidential elections.

As the election looms closer, investors are increasingly betting on the likelihood of Trump losing to Democrat rival Joe Biden in the election, and Biden offering a package with a larger price tag as president.

Some investors remained unconvinced.

“On the whole, the big picture has not changed that much,” Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) director of FOREX Kyosuke Suzuki told Reuters.

The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.01% to 105.60.

The USD/CNY pair was up 0.40% to 6.7199, after the yuan touched a 17-month high on Friday in both onshore and offshore trade. The Chinese currency has gained more than 6% against the greenback since May, driven in large part by the favorable yield differential between China and other major global economies.

The offshore Chinese yuan fell in the wake of the People’s Bank of China’s decision to lower the requirement ratio for financial institutions when conducting some foreign exchange forwards trading.

Some investors predicted that the move would encourage the use of forwards, thus keeping the yuan’s strength in check.

“The authorities have not stood in the way of yuan strength, but this move could be seen as a sign that they want to slow the pace of appreciation,” ANZ head of Asia Research Khoon Goh said in a note.

“Our interpretation is that removing the reserve requirement is intended to encourage firms to hedge in order to manage currency risk. It also enhances the foreign exchange market structure by making it easier for foreign investors to hedge their onshore portfolio investments,” the note added.

The AUD/USD pair edged down 0.12% to 0.7230 and the NZD/USD pair inched down 0.02% to 0.6663. The Antipodean risk currencies saw retreats as the stimulus talks stalled.

The GBP/USD pair edged down 0.10% to 1.3033 ahead of the upcoming European Council meeting on Oct 15 to 16, where the Brexit deal with the U.K. is on the agenda. The pound reached a one-month high on Friday as investors were cautiously optimistic about the U.K. and the European Union reaching a deal by Prime Minister Bori Johnson’s self-imposed deadline of Oct. 15.

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